Four Adjustments To China'S Macroeconomic Policy Response To Imbalances

Cai Zhizhou, a scholar at Peking University, told an interview with our correspondent 22 days ago that China is facing both sides. inflation The pressure is also at risk of lack of growth. To cope with the macroeconomic imbalance at this stage, China's macroeconomic policies should be adjusted in four ways, namely, the choice of growth targets and so on.

China national economic accounting and Economic Growth Research Center released 21 "2011 China's economic growth report" to overcome middle income trap The key is to change the way of development. Dr Cai Zhizhou, deputy director of the center, believes that according to the World Bank statistics and comparison, China's per capita GDP or per capita GNI exceeded 4000 US dollars in 2010. It has developed from a low-income developing country to a middle-income country. and system Obstacles, technological innovation, income distribution, structural adjustment and external environment may become an important factor affecting the next stage of economic growth.

Cai Zhizhou pointed out that China's economic imbalances come from the dual pressure of inflation pressure and growth fatigue. In terms of inflationary pressure, the first is the long period, which will face inflationary pressure in the next 2-3 years. The two is the type change. The pulling effect of demand on inflation will continue to be stronger. The driving force of inflation will gradually increase with the increase of cost. Three, the activity of virtual economy will enhance inflationary pressure and inflation expectations.

In addition, there are three reasons for the lack of growth power: first, it will take 2-3 years for China's economy to enter a new round of high prosperity. Two, the impact of the world financial crisis on China's economy will still exist and may even intensify. Three, the contradiction between domestic demand and shortage is difficult to overcome in the short term.

For this reason, Cai Zhizhou suggested that China's macroeconomic policies should be adjusted accordingly, and this adjustment and change now focus on four aspects:

First, the realistic choice of macroeconomic growth targets can only be "effective growth under moderate inflation". Neither high inflation nor high inflation can be reproduced, and high inflation and low growth should be prevented. Tsai believes that from the perspective of China's entry into the new century, the goal of achieving the goal of development in the new century is to achieve the goal of achieving a well-off society in an all-round way in the year 2020 if the growth rate is maintained at around 6%. If you maintain more than 7% speed, you will achieve your goal ahead of schedule. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the quality and effectiveness of growth.

The two is the combination of macroeconomic policies. In the past period, "more active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy" returned to the "positive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy". On the one hand, macroeconomic regulation and control has substantially entered the "selective exit"; on the other hand, the combination of macroeconomic policies from the same direction of the former fiscal and monetary policy expansion has been re adjusted to the opposite direction combination of "tightness and collocation", that is, while fiscal policy is reducing the intensity of expansion, the direction of expansion is unchanged, and monetary policy has begun to tighten.

Three, exchange rate policy should return to the path of gradual appreciation, paying close attention to the demand and supply effect caused by the acceleration of RMB appreciation.

Four, we should pay attention to the combination of demand management and supply management in the macro management mode. Cai Zhizhou said that the combination of tight macroeconomic control policies and positive supply management may have an impact on short-term economic growth from the surface, but in the long run, it is possible to improve the quality of China's economic growth and help China break through the curse of the "middle-income trap" and achieve sustainable development. (reporter Wang Yongzhi)